Sparks nearing the powder keg

A quick recap of recent developments internationally.

1. We may have to stay in Iraq longer than Obama planned to complete the job.
2. We have committed an additional 21,000 troops to Afghanistan, though exactly what they can possibly accomplish or what the strategy will be remains somewhat unclear.
3. We are preparing to "negotiate" with the world's worst terror state, Iran.
4. China continues to support North Korea, even congratulating Kim on his recent "reelection."
5. Russia is looking increasingly like the old Soviet Union, threatening it's neighbors and looking pretty unlikely to support us in any endeavor.
6. No European nation is willing to commit a single additional soldier to the Afghan conflict.
7. Israel, faced with the existential threat that a nuclear weapon in the hands of crazed Islamic thugs represents, is openly threatening to attack Iran.
8. Thailand has devolved into a state of complete chaos.
9. The drug cartels in Mexico are increasingly powerful and murderous.
10. Somalia has vowed revenge for the deaths of their pirates - war there is certainly not out of the question.

I'm sure I've overlooked a few. Venezuela and Cuba, for example. What about Pakistan? Well, it's just not looking very hope-n-changey. In fact, it's starting to look like the biggest problem of them all, according to David Kilcullen.

Once again, we must turn to foreign media for some real news - this time the Sydney Morning Herald.

Warning that Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.

The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.

[snip]

Laying out the scale of the challenges facing the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen put the two countries invaded by US-led forces after the September 11 attacks on the US on a par - each had a population of more than 30 million.

"But Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control," he told the Herald .

Added to that, the Pakistani security establishment ignored direction from the elected Government in Islamabad as waves of extremist violence spread across the whole country - not only in the tribal wilds of the Afghan border region.

[snip]

"In Afghanistan, it's easy to understand, difficult to execute. But in Pakistan, it is very difficult to understand and it's extremely difficult for us to generate any leverage, because Pakistan does not want our help.

"In a sense there is no Pakistan - no single set of opinion. Pakistan has a military and intelligence establishment that refuses to follow the directions of its civilian leadership. They have a tradition of using regional extremist groups as unconventional counterweights against India's regional influence."

[snip]

"The best case scenario is that the US can deal with Afghanistan, with President Obama giving leadership while the extra American troops succeed on the ground - at the same time as Mr Holbrooke seeks a regional security deal," he said. The worst case was that Washington would fail to stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan would collapse and al-Qaeda would end up running what he called 'Talibanistan.'

"This is not acceptable. You can't have al-Qaeda in control of Pakistan's missiles," he said.

Not acceptable. That may be the understatement of all time. We are facing the very real possibility of being in active combat in as many as five Islamic countries in the coming months. But despite appearances, don't forget - the United States is not at war with Islam! Unfortunately, Islam is at war with us.